Hell No We Won’t Go … Why?

Fillyosophy, Off the Hoof 1 Response »
Jun 302009

Someone asked me today if I thought it was cowardly of Zenyatta’s owners to say she won’t run East of the 405 this year.

My answer? No.

The stated reasoning, from the lips of Jerry Moss himself (per Blood-Horse) makes absolute sense to me:

“As owners, we plan for the Breeders’ Cup. That is where championships are supposed to be resolved. My brain is fighting my heart on this, because I’d like to give Zenyatta every chance to remove any doubts about her place in history, and Rachel Alexandra would be a challenge. She’s an amazing talent. We’d like to meet her, but we don’t want to swerve out of our program, because we still have the Breeders’ Cup foremost in our sights.”

They’re not ducking anyone, in fact Moss is issuing a challenge to the owners of any filly (or colt for that matter) – especially Rachel Alexandra – to come West and try to beat a mare who’s never been bested.

If there can be a coward in this storyline, I’m sorry to say that it’s Jess Jackson.

Let me temper that statement with several facts: (1) they paid many millions of dollars for the filly right after she won the Kentucky Oaks, which is incredibly brazen; (2) they continued to campaign her and have said they plan to through 2010, which is fantastic for the sport; and (3) they’ve said she’s going to Curlin upon retirement, which is supporting their own racing/breeding program.

I like Mr. Jackson. I like Steve Asmussen. I don’t understand this “hell no we won’t go” attitude towards the Breeders’ Cup.

One justification I heard last week was their experience at the ’08 edition, which saw eventual Horse of the Year Curlin run fourth.

The best summation I heard on why they’re staying away? “Is Tiago a better horse than Curlin? No, but he beat him at the Breeders’ Cup.”

Sythentic surfaces are a lightning rod issue in the sport. And, yeah, maybe we rushed into installing it too many places too quick. But they’re not going anywhere.

So owners – and that means you Mr. Jackson – y’all are going to have to suck it up and get over your fears.

If you really think she’s the best in the country – which we have no reason to doubt – run her. You have absolutely no reason not to. And if you skip it and get out-voted for Horse of the Year (after all, ballots go out after the Breeders’ Cup), then you have no one to blame but yourself.

Posted by MJR at 1:06 pm

Scare Me: Stakes Fields are a Teensy-Tinesy Problem

Off the Hoof No Responses »
Jun 302009

Earlier this year, I wrote a piece for The Rail that talked about small fields and bad racing. I still believe that’s a problem and one that cutting racedays without adding some alternative form of gaming really isn’t going to be solved in the short term.

For those who think I’m crazy, just ask yourself the last time Churchill Downs didn’t run Wednesdays. Yeah, it’s been as far back as anyone I know can think of, so let’s say never.

Racing has a problem. We actually have several, but this whole “not enough horses to put in the gate” is kind of a biggie: horse racing critically depends on one thing – the racing of horses.

So, imagine my surprise when last week saw fields drawn for Grade One events on each coast: the Vanity Handicap at Hollywood Park and the Mother Goose at Belmont Park. These are seriously major races and the list of who’s won each reads like a roll call of the best horses to ever run: Azeri, Paseasa, Bayakoa (in the Vanity); Secret Status, Serena’s Song, Go for Wand (in the Moother Goose).

Why was I surprised?

Because the Queen Freak of Racing (or reigning champion older female) Zenyatta was heading a relatively full field of eight (though with two scratches it was still full at six when the race went off).

However, the Princess Freak of Racing (or Kentucky Oaks and Preakness winner) Rachel Alexandra was heading a teensy-tinesy group of five (though two also scratched out of here, making it a ridiculously small field of three).


Now, there are several reasons that could explain the field sizes: chiefly that there have been a lot of recent opportunities for the girls to run routes (distances longer than one mile), so these events could have fallen at the wrong spot on the calendar for many of the Distaff Division.

However, I’m confused by which race drew the shorter straw: Zenyatta is undefeated – she’s never been beat – in 11starts. Rachel Alexandra, on the other hand, just really figured out this winning thing in 2009 (granted, coming in to the Mother Goose, her combined win margin was 49+ lengths this year).

Maybe people aren’t scared of Zenyatta because of her running style: she’s beautiful in the paddock, but really ain’t all that pretty on the track. She’s a grinding closer – she swings wide turning for home and comes charging down the stretch. Obviously, though, this works for her.

But Rachel had a tough race last out against the boys in the Preakness. Shouldn’t more trainers have thought she was going to bounce off that effort? And, even more confusing, NYRA pays down to all finishers, so even running fourth would’ve garnered some decent money (and, the entry fee was only $1,500 if you ran). I’m not sure why so many trainers let the easy money get away: heck, Flashing (third behind Rachel in the Mother Goose) earned $30,000 for her minute-and-a-half of work. Not bad.

But back to Zenyatta. Two of the five horses who ran against her were G2 winners and two more came from ridiculously talented families; only one really had questionable form or pedigree for this bunch. Not to say that the girls who lined up against Rachel weren’t tough, but one G3 winner and a horse who had never been worse than third – neither really bugs me.

When it comes to Grade One stakes company, I want to be scared. I want a group of horses that bother me enough to get to the betting window and take a stand.

There was an Allowance race on the Zenyatta undercard (though it was actually later in the day) and it scared me more than the Vanity or Mother Goose combined. Every single horse in the field – and there were (a respectable) six – was a stakes winner, with four of those graded winners. Though it was won by probably the most obvious horse – Awesome Gem – it was a slugfest to the wire. As it should be.

We heard this week that Rachel Alexandra is on a course that doesn’t include the 2009 Breeders’ Cup. Ok, so the owner is anti-plastic (as he calls synthetic surfaces like at the host-site Santa Anita).

But isn’t it time we all stopped ducking each other?

If you have a champion horse, run her in the champion races. We need to scare betters to the windows, not be scared of each other in the starting gate.

photos courtesy Eclipse Sports Wire

Posted by MJR at 9:21 am

PartyLine Politics: I’d rather see the horse run

Off the Hoof No Responses »
Jun 252009

In high school, I took A.P. Political Science and I never remember the textbook saying that officials (local, state, or federal) should tune out all debate they hear and simply vote down party lines.

If that were the case, I think government would move a lot quicker.

But now the Kentucky legislators are going to learn the hard way that simply playing PartyLine Politics does nothing but damage the state they took an oath to protect. Although I have to respect David Williams because he is the Senate President, I absolutely flat out disagree with his logic. He said from the beginning (and I paraphrase here) that the Expanded Gaming (aka Slots) Bill would pass over his dead body.

But when it passed the Democratically controlled House last Friday, it gave those of us on the Yes side of the fence a great deal of hope. But starting the Senate’s committee meeting at 4pm on Monday should’ve been a clue: given the time constraints they had, it was nearly impossible to think the outcome would be anything other than what Williams decreed.

And the bill failed: 10-5. In racing terms, it was a romp: while there were plenty of us hoping to get our nose in front, instead it was the No’s who got the victory.

Congratulations for further crippling the state’s signature industry.

The thing I find really interesting is that a Yes vote in committee would simply have meant the bill would be heard by the full Senate – not that slots parlors would suddenly pop up and open overnight. Senator Tim Shaughnessy of Louisville, noted to Blood-Horse that the full Senate is 42% Democratic compared with about 20% on the Appropriations and Revenue Committee. The committees, he said, are supposed to be proportionate.

Nothing’s that easy.

The state budget is in crisis mode, but the Senate chose to play “whose back can I scratch today.” That’s not fair to do to the people you were elected to serve.

I remember several years ago when Tom Meeker, then head of Churchill Downs, gave a speech where he said (again, I paraphrase) that slots wouldn’t save Thoroughbred racing but they were needed to stay competitive in the new world we’re in. To me, the now-dead expanded gaming bill in Kentucky served a larger purpose than simply revenues and purse supplements: slots would’ve helped with one problem, but there’s a bigger threat looming.

Delaware will soon have sports betting – the only place outside of Vegas where you can (legally) wager on everything from the Super Bowl to the World Series. And, to make matters worse, New Jersey has already started the process of going after Delaware’s newly minted East Coast Gaming monopoly to combat what they see as a major threat to Atlantic City.

Think we’re losing horsemen because other states have slots? Just wait a few months.

Trainer William “Buff” Bradley, conditioner of Brass Hat and whose family has been a staple on the Kentucky circuit for years, was quoted by Blood-Horse as saying: “This is my home, and I really want to stay, but I’ve got to think about some things. It may be too late. I hear there are people planning to leave…I might just have to have a tentative plan for a year or so; I can do that if I have to.” Those remarks were made at a rally held Wednesday night – three days after the bill was declared dead. Nearly 1,000 people showed up to support the industry that keeps Kentucky on the map.

Because, folks, with the horse industry now seemingly headed deeper into despair, we might have to resign ourselves to the idea that bourbon and soybeans will now be the state’s leading exports.

Why did this have to be about party lines? Why couldn’t this be about the betterment of Kentucky society?

And, I’m sorry, but where was Senator Damon Thayer? This is a man who spent years working for the National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA) and is still on staff at Breeders’ Cup, a man who just Wednesday secured major tax breaks that will continue to bring the Breeders’ Cup back to Churchill, and a man who himself has a small Thoroughbred breeding farm.

Oh, that’s right, he’s a Republican and they’re not supposed to like expanded gaming.

Well, we’ll see how happy everyone is when the industry’s 100,000 jobs and $8.8billion tourist revenues are gone to Indiana, Iowa, West Virginia, and the like.

This was never about Republican vs. Democrat. It was always about what was best for the state’s economy and signature industry.

The only thing PartyLine Politics is good for is the name of a horse. And it’s available.

Posted by MJR at 10:42 am

Bullseye: Eye of the Leopard in the Queen’s Plate

Fillyosophy No Responses »
Jun 242009

All right, race fans, we need to take a good long look at our neighbors to the north. Canada – and Woodbine in particular – do racing so right.

Having spent two days here, I’m hooked.

What started Saturday with amazing hospitality from the press box staff, continued with the “personal betting helpers” in the restaurants, and ended with an unbelievable rendition of the Queen’s Plate.

The 150th running of the Queen’s Plate – Canada’s version of the Kentucky Derby – was run at 1-1/4 mi. for $1,000,000. It is, however, not graded because it is restricted to Canadian-breds (I love that!).

Described as “the big goofy kid” by trainer Mark Frostad, Eye of the Leopard captured today’s running of the Queen’s Plate by taking command at the top of the stretch and holding off late charges from Mr. Foricus Two U and filly Milwaukee Appeal.

A lot will be made of the winner’s breeding, as it should be: he’s one of the most regally bred horses in training (just like my buddy Dunkirk). A son of leading stallion A. P. Indy, Eye of the Leopard is the first foal out of Eye of the Sphynx, the ’04 Woodbine Oaks and Champion Filly.

Frostad has said the plan for Eye of the Leopard is to continue on to the second jewel of the Canadian Triple Crown, the Prince of Wales over the dirt surface at Fort Erie. While he should handle the distance just fine, it would be the first time the colt would experience anything other than a synthetic surface under his hooves – and Frostad has said he will not train or run anywhere other than Woodbine in preparation for the next jewel.

Eye of the Leopard was the first favorite to win this event since Wando captured the Plate in 2003, and he’s seeking to become the first Canadian Triple Crown winner since the big chestnut.

There are few owners to root against in this sport, but the Sam-Son Farm dynasty is one to always always always root for. While the US is seeing some of the great farms sold or shuttered, it’s beyond refreshing to see the next generation of Sam-Son continue on the amazing history created by their forefathers.

I do have to give a big shout-out to the two fillies: Milwaukee Appeal and Tasty Temptation. Neither had the greatest of trips and came back so tough off just two weeks rest since running 1-2 in the Woodbine Oaks. Big things are in these horses’ future for sure and I’m really hopeful we see both (or at least one) at the Breeders’ Cup later this year.

Today saw the continuation of one of the sports most enduring legacies, with Eye of the Leopard taking the Queen’s Plate. And, for those who think lightning can strike twice, he’s got a full brother back at the farm!

Posted by MJR at 2:52 pm

Slots Vote: Helping to KEEP Horses in KY

Off the Hoof No Responses »
Jun 222009

An email sent to KEEP members late Sunday from executive director Patrick Neely…

To see it in your web browser, CLICK HERE

Dear Friend:

WOW! Minutes after the Kentucky House passed House Bill 2, we asked you to email members of the Senate Appropriations and Revenue Committee. The response has been tremendous! In Sunday’s Courier Journal, undecided Republican Senator Tom Buford said he has received “more than 1,000 emails in a 24-hour period starting at 5:00pm Friday.” To everyone who emailed the A&R Committee – THANK YOU! We have read some of the emails, and your thoughtful comments and pleas for support are incredible. Senator Buford went on to say “These emails can work if it comes from someone you know, or especially if it’s from your district.” We can’t stop now!

The A&R Committee of the Senate will receive the bill on Monday at 4:00pm, and may vote that evening. So we need you to email the Senate as soon as you can! As one Senate Democrat said “we (supporters of HB2) are remarkably outnumbered on that committee.” But KEEP Executive Director Patrick Neely made our case by saying “we hope this would advance to the full Senate for a debate amongst all 38 members and not be bottled up in committee.”

CLICK HERE for the original email and a link to email all Kentucky senators.

I’ve said before: slots won’t save the sport but they’ll go a long way to bettering the product. And without improving Kentucky’s situation, it won’t be long until there’s no industry to support at all.

Posted by MJR at 7:03 am

Breaking Hollywood, round 2: $522,957 Carryover

Uncategorized No Responses »
Jun 192009

I bet it gets to $1 million before the pool closes!

We’re getting over yesterday’s debacle: when the first two legs are won by $30+ winners, it’s ok to just shred the ticket and move on. So that’s what we’re doing with today’s Pick 6.

Picks … 3, 5 / 3, 6 / 10, 13 / 2, 4 / 2, 5 / 3, 10 … that’s $64 total for a $1 Pick 6 wager

Leg #1: 8:01pP / 11:01pE … $46k Maiden Special Weight for 3&up F&M going 6f (T)
1 – Seduced (8/1) – first start and stats say beware: trainer is only 10% first time, 7% first time turf
2 – Surprises Welcomed (8/1) – cost $3mil and is bred to be great (1/2 bro is Mr. Sekiguchi & dam is G3-winning 1/2 to A.P. Indy & Summer Squall); she’s shown some ability but has yet to jump up and get the win … dangerous
3 – Shiksa (5/2) – has been facing really good fillies going a bit longer on the Poly and should transition well to turf
4 – Mocha d’Oro (20/1) – really not a threat because she’s been soundly beaten against worse horses, but the her trainer’s stats are freaky: 27% w/ jockey Bejarano and 22% in turf sprints
5 – Royal Fortune (9/5) – bred beautifully (first foal fr/ dam who won her only start & is a FULL sister to the great War Chant); she’s never had a clean trip and that bothers me, but she’s never been worse than third, so she’s definitely got the ability
6 – Gumption (3/1) – ran the best Beyer of the bunch (90) in her last start (at this distance), but has yet to string two good races together (worrisome) and will try to do so in her first start on grass
7 – Miss Annie (20/1) – first start and, again, stats say beware: there’s a lot of 0%s, but trainer/jock combination is winning 14%
8 – Meili (12/1) – was forced to go wide in her debut and that was probably a lot to ask of her first-time out; she’ll try the grass today

Leg #2: 8:29p / 11:29p … $37k Claiming (50k tag) for 3&up going 7f (A)
1 – Big Bad Leroybrown (8/1) – he hates to win but he’s been running in great company
2 – Lang Field (8/1) – shortens back to this specialist distance and gets off the grass off a bit of a freshening, but he’s not the same horse that won the ’07 G1 Citation, though he gets Joe Talamo in the irons for the first time
3 – Principle Street (3/1) – has been running on the lead in shorter sprints for the past eight months, but doesn’t like to win; he has run very well at this distance and this trainer/jockey are winning 33%
4 – Yankee Visionary (5/2) – has been running very well against a notch below and keeps Gomez today, but he has 1 published work in 7 weeks and his last start was 27 days ago
5 – Saint Paul (12/1) – the lightest raced horse in the bunch will be making his fourth start since being off just under two years, but he’s hasn’t been the same horse as before the break
6 – Soda Pop Kid (7/2) – the other horse interested in the lead, he’s been running against similiar at this distance and been holding his own; he does love Hollywood
7 – Bestdressed (7/2) – the most experienced racehorse in the bunch, he’s definitely ghad trouble in recent trips but he’s shown he can overcome them and should probably have more than five wins to his credit … dangerous

Leg #3: 8:57p / 11:57p … $15k Maiden Claiming (22.5-25 tag) for 3&up going 6.5f (A)
1 – Pacific Halo (7/2) – takes the blinkers off and tries the same distance he ran ok at last time out
2 – Mountain Guide (20/1) – puts the blinkers on and gets a jock upgrade to Espinoza, but has yet to show any real ability
3 – Company Tiger (12/1) – has never gotten out of the gate quickly and that’s probably what’s been killing his chances, but if he figures out how to break clean, he could definitely be dangerous
scratch #4 Bernsie’s Baby
5 – Oh Ya (8/1) – debuting; breeding and stats are seriously not in his favor
scratch #6 Olmpic Magic
7 – Fiery Rebel (6/1) – goes for the win in start number 12 and has faced serisouly good horses in his career … dangerous
8 – Warren’s Holiday (30/1) – goes from a 12% to a 4% trainer and has never been closer than 6th
9 – Streets of Heaven (12/1) – runs back just a week since his last start and that might help, but his best finish was 4th against way worse than this
10 – El Rifle (5/1) – debuting; dam is a stakes winning 1/2 to a G2 winner and he’s got a strong string of works
11 – Downtown Banker (20/1) – sixth at the same level last out and many of his trip lines say weakened
12 – Izemine (6/1) – has had trouble in most of his five starts, so maybe forgive him a bit
13 Great Raid (3/1) – takes a ridiculous class drop from MSW and his trainer is 21% when doing so

Leg #4: 9:25p / 12:25a … $19k Claiming (14-16k tag) for 3&up going 7f (A)
1 – Hunter Creek (8/1) – definitely better going shorter distances and has been running consistent numbers
2 – Honouramongfriends (7/2) – has been running respectable v. better horses and drops in for his lowest tag yet
3 – Nene (20/1) – has a tendency to go wide, doesn’t like Hollywood or the distance
4 – Lunch Time (8/1) – stats say he’s a play: likes Hollywood, loves synthetic, likes the distance, trainer/jock are winning 25%, trainer is 24% on the Poly/26% with sprinters/28% with claimers … dangerous
5 – Mountain Route (30/1) – last win came at this level (a year ago) and he does like the distance
6 – No Grande (20/1) – wants the lead, likes the condition and loves the distance
7 – Ata Benchmark (20/1) – doesn’t get out of the gate but otherwise is ok on the Poly, and loves the distance
8 – Talk of a Cat (8/1) – drops in the for the lowest tag of his career and gets a 38% winning trainer/jock combination
9 – Scott’s Spirit (6/1) – drops to the lowest level of his career and likes the lead but can’t seem to hold it long enough to win
10 – Stand Tall (8/1) – has been running ok against better and does like Hollywood
11 – Forest Phantom (9/2) – has the best Beyer of the bunch (95), loves the distance, and likes Hollywood; though he’s shown to run very well in the money (but not win) on the synthetic
12 – Dr. Seacliff (12/1) – might make a play for the lead; he was a pretty good racehorse but hasn’t been really competitive in a year
13 – Swiss Ski (12/1) – hasn’t had the best racing luck, but couldn’t be better than third v. way weaker and did finish fourth v. similar last out

Leg #5: 9:53p / 12:53a … $48k Allowance for 3&up going 6f (T)
1 – Position A (5/2) – has improved w/ every start this year and has two runner-up finishes on the grass, she just needs that extra umph to get the win
2 – Hiya Silver (6/1) – comes in off a maiden win but did it with the best Beyer of this bunch (93) and definitely likes the grass but will try 6f on it for the first time … dangerous
3 – Fu Peg He Rat (12/1) – has faced some of the better 3yo’s in his career but he’s very streaky, though is coming in off an ugly performance
4 – Sagaponack (30/1) – the only reason to play would be the stats: first time w/ trainer is 29%, route to sprint is 36%
5 – Itshim (3/1) – the only horse w/ Timeform ratings is making his US debut after 3 very nice wins on the synthetic in the UK; it will be interesting to see how he handles our turf, as he ran absolutely horribly on it in the UK; trainer/jock are winning 26% together and his trainer is winning 23% first time (only 11% with first time US) … beatable favorite!
6 – Sognatore (8/1) – dam was a 2xG3 winner and this horse love the turf, but he’s been on the downhill since breaking his maiden three starts back
7 – Hovig (7/2) – broke maiden last out on the lead and likes the Hollywood turf; trainer is 22% when they’ve won their last start and 29% w/ this jockey
8 – Empire House (6/1) – wants the lead, showed a love for grass sprints last out, and keeps Garrett Gomez

Leg #6: 10:21p / 1:21a … $15k Maiden Claiming (22.5-25k tag) for 3&up F&M going 5.5f (A)
1 – Storm’n Marisa (8/1) – first start for first foal out of dam who won the only start she had
2 – Kay S (3/1) – tried her first start at Turf Paradise and it didn’t go so well, but has pretty good works over the track
3 – Cactus Flyer (5/2) – debuts with lasix for trainer/jockey combo winning at 50%
scratch #4 Faithless
5 – Pretty (20/1) – stats say this first time starter is not a play
6 – Tribal Fire (6/1) – off 1.5 years, this horse is back over a track he likes and with a solid set of works behind him
7 – Pallotolla (8/1) – debuts for a 16% first time trainer
8 – Stormy Anna (30/1) – she dropped her jockey last time out but hasn’t really shown too much in her eight career starts
9 – Warren’s Becka (20/1) – debuts for a 2% first time out trainer
10 – Suances de Espana (8/1) – debuts for a 20% first time out trainer and dam was stakes placed
scratch #11 Humane
12 – K Note (8/1) – debuts for an 11% first time out trainer who’s only 8% when using this jockey
13 – Be an Angel (20/1) – hopefully learned from his debut where he had a ton of trouble
scratch #14 Nantucket Mist
scratch #15 Kami D B C
scratch #16 Rio Revelde

Posted by MJR at 7:59 am
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