Focused Filly

Update #2: the 10th has been taken off the turf, meaning the last leg of the Pick 6 is now an ALL for everyone (so if you’re alive through the 9th race, you hit the Pick 6 – congrats!)
Update: 1: it’s now raining buckets in NYC … and my picks have yet to hit the winner’s circle …

Two things I like about today: it’s not raining in NYC (yet) and it’s Saratoga Opening Day!

These are things to celebrate in my world!

There’s 32 pages of PPs to look through – 32! – compare that that to the 15 for the last Saturday of Belmont … and, yeah, I’m a little giddy!

So here’s the plan: I’m handicapping each race in hopes it helps make someone money. No promises, but it’s worth a shot … Opening Day only happens once a year at the Spa!

<\___~ see Changes to the card here on NYRA.com

Race 1 (1 pm ET / 10 am PT): $52k Starter Allowance for 3&up going 1-1/16 mi. (T)
result: #7 Good Prospect ($17.20/$9.20/$6.30) … #5 Dantastic ($7.50 / $5.40) … #6 Moon A La Mode ($11)
Love: #11 Smarten Destiny obviously wants to go long, is comfortable on the grass, can win on the lead going long, and McPeek’s stats are scary with a horse like this
Like: #8 Stepaside loves Saratoga and the distance, plus goes from Potts to Coa – don’t know if I can argue with that
Iffy: #4 Silver King likes to win at the distance and on the surface – not a horse I can easily toss

Race 2 (1:33p / 10:33a): $45k Maiden Special Weight for 3&up F&M going 1 mi. (T)
result: #9 Freedom Rings ($3.30 / $2.70 / $2.50) … #5 Cap the Thunder ($8.30 / $5.30) … #10 Split Pot ($8.10)
Love: #1 Mythical Yarn Prado stays on, debuted with tons of trouble and Serpe’s stats are good in this condition – there’s nothing to not like
Like: #9 Freedom Rings she bugs me but not enough to love … off since Breeders’ Cup, trainer takes a jock off who did nothing wrong on paper; the horse does have 4 decent works but missed the entire month of May and this would be the perfect spot to shake the cobwebs … she’s got the backclass to trounce here (even if Bon Jovi Girl couldn’t win the Delaware Oaks earlier this month)
Iffy: #11 Fairy Wand at a price but just needs to draw in … Ramon gets off to ride a horse for the first time for Barclay Tagg (I understand: they win 28% together) but Albertrani barely names Desormeaux (they win 46% when he does though) and the horse likes longer on the grass

Race 3 (2:06p / 11:06a): $80.5k James Marvin Stakes for 3&up going 7f
result: #9 Gold Trippi ($18 / $7.30 / $4) … #4 Pyro ($4.70 / $3.40) … #6 Finallymadeit ($4.60)
Love: #3 Cassoulet call me crazy for liking a 15/1 shot in here but he’s a different beast since moving to Jimmy Baker this year and being towards the inside will be good for a horse who keeps getting trapped wide
Like: #4 Pyro I love this horse and his sister too (War Echo – looks just like him) … but he likes Saratoga but has never seen the winner’s circle, has been off since Breeders’ Cup, is in a new barn (ok, one that wins 19% first time), and gets a jock switch (can’t really call it an upgrade given the horse’s record) … I want to hope he can do it but he gives me commitment issues
Iffy: #5 Riley Tucker he may be lone speed here and that’s dangerous, plus he’s got the best Beyer coming in (even if I think they rated that race too high) and he’s definitely a tough horse

Race 4 (2:39p / 11:39a): $53k Allowance for 3&up going 1 mi. (T)
result: #3 Get Stormy ($7.90 / $4.70 / $3.50) … #6 Hammock ($7.00 / $5.60) … #11 Whitley ($7.40)
Love: #9 Cairiene has bounced to a bunch of trainers since his debut last year but he got beat by some really nice horses early in his career and seems to be different since moving to Asmussen … plus I like the Bridgmohan to Prado jump and the price
Like: #7 Parc des Princes has cost me a lot of money (in that I never bet him) and I think this is an absolutely logical spot for him to win, except he’s a bigger fan of hitting the board than the winner’s circle so I can’t put him in the Love category
Iffy: #8 Boots Ahead like that Desormeaux stays on and that the horse has been versatile (last two starts were wins at each a sprint and route), plus he debuted against a tough bunch in March (Custom for Carlos came back a stakes horse and Nicanor – Barbaro’s full brother – turned out to be a devil on grass)

Race 5 (3:13p / 12:13p): $48.4k Maiden Special Weight for 2yo NY-breds going 5f
result: #8 Come From Behind ($17.20 / $6.90 / $5) … #5 City Trooper ($4.20 / $3.20) … #9 Save Time For Me ($7.50)
Love: #6 Magic Tiger working consistently since May, obviously didn’t like the Poly at Arlington in the mornings, but Asmussen 2yo’s are always strong (21% winners) and Prado is one of the best jocks around
Like: #4 One Note Samba been pushed hard last two works (from last to 2nd means there’s a good fitness level there) and Pletcher’s tough with 2yo’s
Iffy: #10 Gerard Loves Beer worst name in the bunch has been working strong since April, so he’s definitely fit; jockey/trainer stats are strong, but Levine’s not the best first out, even if he’s great with 2yo’s

Race 6 (3:47p / 12:47p): $34k Claiming for 3&up going 1-1/16 mi. (T)
result: #1 Optimer ($8.80 / $4.780 / $3.50) … #4 Fire Wood ($5.90 / $4.10) … #11 Deputyville ($4.20)
Love: #5 Bold Abbott is taking a major class drop and gets JohnnyV back up (the last time this horse was good was with him in the irons) – the only question mark is Graham Motion here (stats don’t scream win)
Like: #15 Untopable if he names a rider and the horse goes, Klesaris is deadly in this condition and the horse, who loves the distance, proved good at this level late last year,
Iffy: #12 Holiday Trip off since April has some decent longer works into him, and has experience at Saratoga and likes the grass, but doesn’t like winning

Race 7 (4:21p / 1:21p): $55k Maiden Special Weight for 2yo’s going 5.5f
result: #2 Westover Wildcat ($6.60 / $4.20 / $3.10) … #10 No Truth Told ($27.40 / $10.20) … #1A Antenna ($5.20)
Love: #8 Trappe Shot is half to 3 stakes winners (including Miss Shop, a 3xGSW) and has a bullet over the course ten days ago; plus they paid a lot of money for a horse from a good consignor who was fit enough to immediately go into training
Like: #4 Macjoey the Asmussen/Prado angle here again (44%) and the horse has been working steadily at Saratoga since the end of June
Iffy: #1 & 1A Doubles Partner & Antenna is an entry for WinStar Farm and they don’t have bad horses … both are steady workers that cannot be tossed from consideration
Honorable Mention: #10 No Truth Told comes out of a really nice Churchill turf race and is not a 30/1 shot in my opinion

Race 8 (4:55p / 1:55p): $59.8k Allowance for 3&up going 6f
result: #4 Saratoga Russell ($10 / $6 / $5) … #7 Captain Rio ($7.50 / $5.40) … #1 Glittermans Cartel ($10.40)
Love: #2 Presto Change O I don’t see this horse getting beat – runs a 101 in what is essentially his debut, keeps throwing bullet works in the mornings, and has solid trainer/jock stats to back him up
Like: #4 Saratoga Russell if only for my friend Teresa Genaro … he did weaken at this distance last out but that was off a full year layoff, plus he gets a major jock upgrade today and is the classiest horse in the field if he’s anywhere near back to form
Iffy: #7 Captain Rio he’s strong at the distance, has never really run a bad race, and might be the fastest finisher of the bunch (plus his dad was a little Margolis-trained lightning bolt)

Race 9 (5:30p / 2:30p): $100k G3 Schuylerville for 2yo F’s going 6f
result: #1 Hot Dixie Chick ($5.30 / $3.70 / $2.90) … #10 Beautician ($4.60 / $3.40) … #3 Cowgirl Mally ($4.40)
Love: #1 Hot Dixie Chick is the fastest 2yo (boy or girl) in the country by6 points (next is the stakes winning colt Western Smoke) … she’s scary fast and scary goodand has solid works (plural) over the strip – I can’t not love her here
Like: #7 Vivid Colors is another strong McPeek 2yo who was strong in her debut at Churchill, comes into today with back-to-back bullets (over Churchill) and gets Borel on board (jock/trainer are 21%) and is enough of a price to play
Iffy: #10 Beautician is from the McPeek barn but won her debut by 2 lengths with a wide trip and without Lasix (very rare in this day ‘n age); plus she’s got a work over the track and jock/trainer is 26%

Race 10 (6:04p / 3:04p): $30k Claiming for 3&up going 1 mi. (T)
result: #9 Rodman ($10.60 / $5.80 / $4.20) … #5 Galan Fete ($11 / $7) … DEAD HEAT #6 Bordeaux Bandit ($2.50) & #7 Lofty Banner ($6.70)
Love: #9 Rodman takes a gigantic/huge/major/OMG class drop but tries both Saratoga and the grass for the first time
Like: #6 Bordeaux Bandit has been solid at just a notch below this level
Iffy: #2 Spartan King broke his maiden last out for a bigger tag than he’s in for today and Napravnik seldom comes north (and she’s 31% for Trombetta), and the horse cuts back in distance

Is it bad when a horse tests positive for a medication you take every night?

From DRF.com …

It’s a Bird hearing scheduled
By Mary Rampellini

The Arkansas Racing Commission has scheduled a July 21 hearing on It’s a Bird’s positive test for Naproxen following his April 4 win in the Grade 2, $500,000 Oaklawn Handicap. The hearing will be heard during the commission’s regularly scheduled meeting at the Ledbetter Building in Little Rock, Ark. Oaklawn concluded its meet April 11.

“Since the stewards are gone, this one is going straight to the commission,” said Ron Oliver, executive director of the commission.

Naproxen, a nonsteriodal anti-inflammatory sold for human use under the brand name Aleve, is a Class 4 medication violation. Arkansas has a zero-tolerance policy on the drug. Possible penalties are loss of purse, fine and/or suspension.

It’s a Bird has established himself as one of the top handicap horses in the nation this year for trainer Marty Wolfson. He won the $1 million Sunshine Millions Classic at Gulfstream Park in January, and followed that up with wins in the Oaklawn and the Grade 3, $400,000 Lone Star Park Handicap on May 25. In his most recent start, It’s a Bird was seventh in the Grade 2 Suburban at Belmont Park on July 4.

RESULT: well, harumph … 6-2-7-1 … all horses in My Picks, but I tossed the 6 fr/ MythicalMoney because I thought the 2 was going to be better today. Oh well!

Maiden Special Weight
Purse: $44k
Distance: 1 mile (Turf)
Conditions: For Maidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward. Weights: Three Year Olds, 118 Lbs.; Older, 123 Lbs.

THE FIELD
(Program # for betting – The Horse (Sire x Dam) … Trainer / Jockey)

1 – West Court (Gone West x Home Court) … Christophe Clement / Ramon Dominguez
1A – Driven Snow (Storm Cat x Wandesta) … Christophe Clement / Alan Garcia
2 - Siren Serenade (Unbridled’s Song x Versailles Treaty) … Shug McGaughey / Edgar Prado
3 – Recollect (El Prado x Memories of Silver) … James Toner / Rajiv Maragh
4 – Rushin Empire (Empire Maker x Hot Novel) … John Kimmel / Mike Luzzi
5 – Saudi Princess (Unbridled’s Song x Saudi Poetry) … Bill Mott / Cornelio Velasquez
6 - Miss Catalyst (Mr. Greeley x Key to the Cat) … Todd Pletcher / Javier Castellano
7 – Minishaft (Mineshaft x Minidar) … Kiaran McLaughlin / Jose Lezcano
8 - To the Point (Incurable Optimist x Legitime) … David Donk / Eibar Coa
scratch 9 / 10 – Platinum (Mineshaft x Nataliano) … Jimmy Jerkins

Why the race of the day?
I’m a pedigree handicapper and this is absolutely mindblowing…

#1 is the first foal out of a stakes placed dam, whose 2nd dam (or mom’s mom) won 4G1′s in her career
#1A is Juddmonte-bred & Overbrook-owned (email me if that doesn’t make you giddy), and her dam was an absolute freak (5xGraded winner), though she hasn’t done much in the breeding shed
#2 is by a leading stallion, out of a 4xG1 winning dam; she is a 1/2 to Saarland, though there’s not much else sibling-wise to tout
#3 is out of a 6xGraded winner (2xG1) and is herself a 1/2 to 2 stakes winners
#4 is a 1/2 to Behrens (7xGraded winner)
#5 is a Courtland Farms homebred who’s dam won three stakes, two of them graded
#6 is another one by the leading stallion, out of a stakes winner
#7 is a homebred for Edward Evans who’s dam is a G3 winner and has two siblings with $70k+ in earnings
#8 is an Argentinian-bred whose unraced dam has thrown two horses with $130k+ in earnings

My Picks
Love: #6 Miss Catalyst (4/1) because she wasn’t happy going just shorter or just longer than today’s distance and the mile should benefit her speed since she seems to fade right then; also #1 West Court (7/2) because her 5th place finish against this level is a lot better than it looks (she lost to an eventual 3x stakes winner)
Like: #2 Siren Serende (4/1) has been facing some really good fillies and I think she’ll like the distance (heck, last time she ran it was against a host of seriously tough stakes horses)
Iffy: #4 Rushin Empire because her debut can be tossed plus her next start was full of trouble; #7 Minishaft is the morning line favorite (5/2) so that’s a knock and she wasn’t able to the win against a lesser group of horses, but Kiaran win’s 15% first time out with a new horse and she’s got the best Beyer of the bunch

MythicalMoney … total cost: $12
$2WPS on #4 if only because she’ll be a great price!
$1 Exacta Box using #1, #2, #7 tip: using the #1 also gets you the #1a for no extra money!