A non-TrackRat friend asked me earlier this month why the Breeders’ Cup is special. “The Kentucky Derby is like the MLB All Star Game,” he said, “everyone’s heard of it, even if we don’t really understand exactly what it is.”
If the Derby is the All Star Game, that makes Breeders’ Cup the World Series, right?
I live in New York, so the fact that the Yankees just won their 27th Championship is pretty big news (so big in fact that their celebratory parade preempted even Oprah on local television today). And there isn’t really a pinstriped lineup in recent memory that hasn’t been listed at some point during the season as a favorite for pennant contention.
But they still have to play 162 games a year. And the same is true in racing: they still have to load the horses into the gate and send ‘em round the track. And, last I checked, the teams (and horses) who do it best all year long wind up in the championships. But the Yankees don’t always win – and neither do the favored horses.
The working theory on racing favorites is a 33% win rate – not too bad, not too good. Today’s Breeder’s Cup card probably skews the curve some … 0 for 6. 0%. As I say to my dog when he asks for table scraps: none, zilch, zip, nada, nanka. That’s – umm – disturbing.
Now, that said, the biggest price on the day was only $21.60 for Tapitsfly in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. That means the prices were fairly logical all day long. However, fate (otherwise known as whatever God you pray to when you’re half of a photo finish) did pitch a Favorites Shutout today at Breeders’ Cup Stadium.
Who got beat? Three returning winners, a slew of international stars, and much of the best fillies (and colts for those who played the Marathon) that America had to offer.
Who won is the better question: if winning today was a pitcher’s dream, then homebreds were it’s A-Rod. Five of the six horses walking around the winner’s circle decked out in a golden blanket of flowers were owned by the same folks who’d paid for their birth to be possible. That’s staggering. It’s also a statement on where the sport’s heading (we live in a world where Overbrook is dispersing all of their horses) – I, for one, wouldn’t object to a “old new age” of racing – remember when Juddmonte owned turf racing? It was good business.
And today gave us more than a few glimmers that yesteryear isn’t too far gone: the breeding on the new Marathon and Distaff/Ladies Classic winners alone is enough to make me squeal – the former is Man of Iron (half brother to Belmont winners – with an “s” – Rags to Riches and Jazil, and G2 winner Casino Drive); the latter is Life Is Sweet (full sister to 2004 champion juvenile filly Sweet Catomine).
Among the great things about Life Is Sweet getting the victory was how she overpowered what were thought to be much better horses, did it with ease, and established her rightful place outside of Zenyatta’s shadow. And it does prove that John Shirreffs was going to win the Distaff/Ladies Classic for a second straight year with whatever it took – Zenyatta, Life Is Sweet, or a claimer if he had to.
See, I always saw Life Is Sweet as the pinch runner on the roster: she earned her spot to play in every game, but never really got the glory of hitting the grand slam. If I say Brett Gardner, you probably would say “who?” He’s the guy the Yankees bring in to score crucial runs off base hits late in the game. Gardner’s made a name for himself stealing bases and today Life Is Sweet earned her own pinstripes with her version of a clutch hit: but this one came with a $2,000,000 kicker. No RBI needed.
As every coach (and handicapper) must ask: what did we learn from today’s game? We saw the track play fair with the rail the strongest route, and 0% favorites with 83% homebreds. If I may move from baseball to football analogies here: as Pete Carroll must’ve said after last week’s Oregon game: this is not what I was expecting.
But, hey, that’s Breeders’ Cup!
