Baffert on the Jersey Shore

Fillyosophy 4 Responses »
Mar 292010

When Monmouth announced their plans to run a shortened meet this year, it was not only a departure from tradition for them but a deliberate move towards a more refined (think EuroAsian) way of racing that attracts thousands to races even on weekdays.

And with stall applications in today, we have proof that it’s attracting trainers too. All the usual summer shore suspects are there, but there are a few surprises: namely Bob Baffert.
Baffert coming East isn’t shocking – he spent the summer in Saratoga a few years ago when his main owner Ahmed Zayat essentially boycotted the new PolyTrack surface at Del Mar. And he does have a permanent stall (or two) reserved in New York in the barn of John Terranova.
What’s surprising to me is this:
Monmouth runs 50 dates between May 22 – September 6
Saratoga runs 40 dates between July 23 – September 6
That’s a lot of overlap!
Taking a look at Baffert’s numbers, though, his choice may not be such a shock after all…

Starts Win Place Show Earnings
Monmouth (since ’97) 16 9 4 1 5,114,610
Saratoga (since ’91) 66 16 6 15 2,337,415
I do have to wonder, however, if this doesn’t signal a larger shift in Horseman’s thinking.
With all the trouble at NYRA and no solution in sight, perhaps trainers are going to be looking at traditionally smaller tracks. We saw this happen when Pennsylvania and West Virginia got slots – suddenly Penn National, Philly Park, and Charles Town didn’t look so bad.
Truly the only thing Saratoga and Monmouth share is the overwhelming feeling that you’re walking through history. When it comes to tradition: Saratoga is to glitz and glamour, as Monmouth is to cozy and intimate.
Bob Baffert isn’t one to fear running outside his comfort zone – proven this year by shipping Lookin at Lucky and Conveyance to stakes wins at Oaklawn Park.
I just hope his trying the Jersey Shore is limited to the track and not the spray tan.
Posted by MJR at 10:41 am

WinStar Derby – what was could be what is again

Fillyosophy No Responses »
Mar 282010

I remember watching one of the first runnings of the Sunland Park Derby several years ago and thinking it was an interesting ungraded Kentucky Derby prep. It was like shipping your horse to Turf Paradise just to get him away from the SoCal powerhouses – see if you have the talent, then try to find earnings after the fact.

Flash forward to today: the first edition of the race as a G3, meaning the winner vaulted from zero-to-I’m-in-the-Derby in about 1 minute & 49 seconds.
When Endorsement overtook Conveyance mid-stretch and pulled clear to a 3 length victory, he stamped his ticket (and gave his owner – WinStar Farm – a 4th potential Derby starter.
In a semi-ironic twist, when Sunland Park originally wanted to card a set of preps for the Oaks and Derby, they found a sponsor … in WinStar Farm. In fact, today’s race is still listed on the track’s website as the WinStar Derby.
I’m not going to claim the fix was in, but I do love the coincidence of it.
Last weekend I said that it was ok to like Lentenor on the Derby Trail and having it have nothing to do with his connection to Barbaro. The same is true today with Endorsement – just because Mind That Bird won the Kentucky Derby off a 4th place finish in the Sunland Derby last year, doesn’t mean Endorsement is more of a lock than any other of the 35+ horses still in the pool.
There is a big difference: Lentenor has the same DNA as a Derby winner. Endorsement beat a fading favorite to win a race a Derby winner couldn’t.
People often forget that Mine That Bird made the I’m In! list mainly with his 2yo Canadian (champion) campaign earnings. He wound up in the Sunland Derby because his new owners wanted to run him in a prep close to home.
The odds of a smaller Derby prep – so in its infancy that it’s just been made graded – producing back to back winner’s is unlikely.
Sunland Park could make a case for being the southwestern cousin of Oaklawn Park: slots, middle-of-nowhere location, big purses, near enough to a big circuit to siphon horses, etc.
Remember the first year Oaklawn put major publicity behind its Derby prep, Smarty Jones aced both tests. But Afleet Alex couldn’t follow the same trajectory the next year. I have a feeling we’re in the same boat with Mine That Bird and Endorsement.
Let’s what happens in 5 weeks – it’s a long time to ponder whether I might be willing to endorse the WinStar Derby efforts.
Posted by MJR at 8:53 pm

MythicalMoney: Louisiana Derby

Uncategorized No Responses »
Mar 272010

If given the choice, I’d rather be sipping coffee and nibbling beignets at Cafe du Monde, than simply daydreaming about it as I handicap the Louisiana Derby.


So while my mind wanders, here’s my take on the field…

5:48 pm ET / 4:48 pm CT: G2 Louisiana Derby $750k for 3yo’s going 1-1/8 mi (Trainer/Jockey)

1 – Hotep (Frostad/Husbands): should get a way better trip than his last two starts and has history at the distance – just his second start – but he’d have to step up huge
2 – Mission Impazible (Pletcher/Maragh): bred to go long but the first try at a mile last out didn’t seem to suit – he’s Munnings until he proves me wrong
3 – Fly Down (Zito/Lezcano): this team’s hot on the Derby Trail so far and the horse has done nothing wrong so far in his career – I wanna worry about the light seasoning, but he does have a win at the distance
4 – The Program (Baffert/Nakatani): expensive, highly touted SoCal shipper who can definitely get the distance – the question is how he’ll like real dirt
5 – A Little Warm (Dutrow/Cohen): a sprinter until he shows otherwise, he does boat a 34% trainer/jock win rate and a 27% trainer sprint-to-route rate so he’s worth a second glance – but I wouldn’t linger
6 – Ron the Greek (Amoss/Graham): totally wanna see a rebound back to the impressive winner of the Lecomte because I think he’s got grit – wondering if maybe he’s not thrilled to go longer
7 – Discreetly Mine (Pletcher/Castellano): has done absolutely nothing wrong so far and has already learned how to run well overcoming trouble, but the fact Todd dropped him back to 6f before taking him long last time out is puzzling – he’s kinda bred to be a miler
8 – Island Soul (Asmussen/Albarado): the usual last-minute Derby earnings try for connections that love the limelight – he’s probably way overmatched but he seems to fit more logically than his 20-1 morning line portrays
9 – Stay Put (Margolis/Theriot): 5th barely beaten 2-3/4 last out and the run line says “little impact” … ok … he’s worth a look at the price he’ll be because he’s the sleeper of the pack
10 – Wow Wow Wow (Lukas/Jacinto): loved him pre-Gotham but not such a big fan now, unless he can figure out how to be on the lead without losing all his steam before the stretch – sorta leaning towards Good Allowance Horse sentiments
11 – Mister Mardi Gras (Pessin/Bridgomohan): can imagine that barn conversation sounding like “congrats, you broke your maiden for $39k on the grass, so next we’re putting you up for Derby contention” … ok … the fact that Chris Block (of Giant Oak fame) prepped him for his debut says this horse has skill, but I just can’t like him until we get to the Arlington grass series in August
12 – Backtrack (Scherer/Sellers): it’s asking a lot for him to beat these horses in just his 3rd start, having never gone further than 6f – but crazier things have happened
13 – Drosselmeyer (Mott/Desormeaux): I am not on his bandwagon until he wins by the length of the stretch – sorry, but I think he’s just a tad overrated right now – he’s already a winner at this distance and he’ll surely be in the Derby gate

Here’s what I’d play for $10.40
$2 WPS on 8-Island Soul ($6.00)
$.10 Super Box using 3, 6, 7, 9 ($2.40)
$1 Ex Box using 6, 7 ($2.00)

Posted by MJR at 2:24 am

Expect Sentimentalism from Me

Fillyosophy No Responses »
Mar 202010

To many, the following will probably not be much of a shock: I like Lentenor in today’s Florida Derby – not saying he wins, but he’s going in my Exacta Box.

What might surprise, though is the reason: it has zero to do with his being the latest full brother to Barbaro.
Here’s what I see:
- Never worse than third (and that was his debut)
- Never gone shorter than 7f (and that was his debut)
- Would’ve probably broken his maiden second time out but for a bobbled break and traffic trouble
- The horse he out-necked in his second-place finish last out just came back to win big on the undercard
- Comes in with a (what seems to be “make sure the screws are tight”) bullet work going 5f
I am generally a pedigree handicapper, so it’s in my nature to say that a Dynaformer colt out of Carson City mare should get today’s 1-1/8 mi with no problem, and – in terms of Derby implications – he should be fine when we’re stretching out even further.
In a normal situation, I would then look to his siblings for clues. This particular horse just happens to have Barbaro as one of those siblings.
All that gives us is more information to work with: not a reason to bet for or against.
In fact, in the case of Lentenor, one of the reasons I like him here is his other brother. Nicanor was also pretty talented, also on the grass, and only got better as he got older. Barbaro – God love him – was the family freak who never lost a race he finished. Information-wise, all that tells me is the horse had tremendous heart and could get the distances.
But I make a big distinction between expectations and sentimentalism.
One cannot expect Kobe Bryant’s daughter to grow up to star in the WNBA. Similarly, no one expects Solange Knowles’ music career to rival that of her sister, Beyonce. It’s very rare to get a family like the Gyllenhaals, where siblings Jake and Maggie are able to consistently perform at the top levels of their craft.
When it comes to sentimentalism, however, racing is rife. I find it perfectly acceptable that I love Mani Bhavan because I’d clocked her mom at Churchill and oh-so-fabulous-at-the-Sales Aikenite is still on my Derby list.
Given that I loved Barbaro on the track, did I have a few bucks on Lentenor in his debut? Yes. If he makes it to the Derby, will I probably have a few bucks on him because of it? Yes.
Could he do what his brother did and win the Derby? Certainly. He was won of 30,000 foals born in North America in 2007. Each of them has the same chance and it’s a combination of luck, skill, hard work, and ability that will get 20 of them into the starting gate on May 1.
But there’s plenty more logic to my sentimentalism than just expecting greatness.
Posted by MJR at 11:16 am

Why 4500 Slots Stand in the Way of Progress

Fillyosophy, Off the Hoof No Responses »
Mar 142010

This past Friday, Mum and I rewarded ourselves for a hard week’s work with the deliciousness known as Lunch at Barney’s. We were there later than usual, so the overtly LA-ness that is the lunch crowd of literary agents, movie stars, and celebutants had gone and we pretty much had the run of the place.


We talked about work and life and somehow the conversation wound its way around to my non-radio radio show scheduled for the next morning. Thanks to Indiana high school basketball championships, KYWC had been preempted this week, so we were taking it Online Only. “But last week’s show was crazy interesting,” I told Mum, “Greg Hall talked about all the intrigue going on in Frankfurt and why slots aren’t passing there or New York or anywhere else.”

We’ve all read the stories: New York approved slots in 2001 – now 9 years and 3 governors later, we’re no closer to the 4,500 machines being turned on at Aqueduct. Interestingly, every other location in the state that was approved has gone ahead with installation and has seen business boom. (btw, if you want a fun night out away from the City, take a trip to Yonkers – the racing is fun and the cover bands are seriously good)

Kentucky, meanwhile, has seen bill after bill after constitutional amendment fail (sometimes to even get out of committee). Interestingly – and even more confusingly – Kentucky State Senate President David Williams is unabashed in his love for visiting “The Boat” (aka the gambling boats on the Indiana side of the Ohio River). Personally, I’m in favor of the latest rumblings about the gaming bill in the Commonwealth: open it up for host site bidding and don’t limit it to the racetracks – that’s fine – I like a little competition. Even if we don’t jump in whole hog (or horse) right away with the table games or slots: Instant Racing is hugely popular at Oaklawn Park – and just as fun from what friends say.

But, as Mum asked, what does it all mean?

My (full of delicious salmon salad) gut feeling is: independent of the legislature’s choices, slots in New York will be a good thing for Kentucky.

Some will say this is an outrageous claim because it will be yet one more state that’s not Kentucky where purses are up and horsemen are tempted to go. And I don’t disagree that the fact is we’ve seen trainers leaving Churchill Downs and (more often) the Trackside training facility because the purses in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Delaware are just too darn good to pass up.

But consider this: racing in New York is better than those 3 states combined and those other state-bred programs just aren’t on par with what the Empire State offers to breeders (though, to be fair, PA is getting close). If the machines can just be turned on, I’d bet my Bailey that horsemen in PA/WV/DE would be running in New York and horses being run out of New York would now stay.

So, while the 3 main states competing for Kentucky’s horses are busy fighting New York to stabilize the Northeastern racing circuit, horsemen would be more inclined to stay put in the Commonwealth. And, while this would undoubtedly help Churchill and Keeneland, the ones who benefit the most would be Turfway and Ellis – the sad, lonely stepchildren to the north and south – tracks that just need some love because no one can live for long with cards full of $5k claimers.

Just as a film financing debate breaks out at the table in the corner behind us, Mum asks “In your theory, what happens when Massachusetts goes ahead and approves slots at Suffolk?”

Oh lord, time to hit the shoe department!

Posted by MJR at 1:52 pm

3/6: Big’Cap Day! @ Santa Anita!

Uncategorized No Responses »
Mar 062010
The National Weather Service is sticking to it’s guns and saying Santa Anita is getting “Showers, mainly after 4pm. High near 60. East southeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.”

But now that it’s raining at The Castle (the family house in Bel Air named for its draftiness and nothing else), I’m posting my Santa Anita $2 Pick 6 picks for today…

$36 Ticket: 3 / 3, 5, 7 / 5, 7 / 8 / 2, 6, 14 / 10

Race 6: 5:47 pm ET / 2:47 pm PT
Pasadena Stakes … $60k for 3yo going 1 mi (T)
Love: 3-Macias is the deserving favorite and should be ok even if they pull off the grass
Like: 5-Jairzihno gets Talamo and blinks for second start in the US

Race 7: 6:24 pm ET / 3:24 pm PT
G3 Sham Stakes … $150k for 3yo going 1-1/8 mi. (A)
Love: 3-Outlaw Man at a price, gets GoGo up for McPeek, has 2 starts at the distance (never worse than 2nd by a head), and the sprinting Forest Wildcat sire fear is balanced out by being from a Cozzene mare
Like: 5-Boulder Creek is a gorgeous little gray (the only horse I wanted more at the sales last year was Aikenite!) … Dollase/Espinoza is 23%, but this is a big step up first time v. fellow winners ; also liking 7-Setsuko for the distance foundation and never-worse-than-4th factor

Race 8: 6:57 pm ET / 3:57 pm PT
G1 Santa Anita Oaks … $250k for 3yo fillies going 1-1/16 mi. (A)
Love: 5-Blind Luck is arguably 1 of 2 Derby potential fillies right now (shoutout to Christine Daae), so she’s gotta get the nod here for Hollendorfer – who’s 21% with Bejarano up – and never been outta the money with 5 trips to the winner’s circle in 7 starts
Like: 7-Cozi Rosie figured out how to win 2-back and continues to impress for the Moss’ and trainer John Sadler (not Shirreffs)
Scratch: 1-Sister Dawn

Race 9: 7:30 pm ET / 4:30 pm PT
G1 Frank Kilroe Handicap … $250k for 4&up going 1 mi. (T)
Love: 8-Proviso is a girl against the boys who gets back to grass (hopefully – and is perfectly ok if not) and has done nothing but run ITM 13-of-18 lifetime and gets “Money Mike” Smith up for the first time
Like: 10-Battle of Hastings gets away from The Usual Q.T. in his first start of the year and gets Tyler Baze back in the irons – the only question is the synthetic if they pull off the grass

Race 10: 8:02 pm ET / 5:02 pm PT
G1 Santa Anita Handicap (The Big’Cap!) … $750k for 4&up going 1-1/4 mi. (A)
Love: 6-Loup Breton only for the price over the filly 2-St Trinians … both have started 2010 strong and it’ll be a slugfest down to the wire
Like: 14-Jeranimo likes him the 2010 (3 solid efforts), but can he stay away from getting caught wide and in trouble? ; 9-Marsh Side should improve off 2nd off the Tokyo turnaround
Fantasy Hope: 4-Neko Bay

Race 11: 8:34 pm ET / 5:34 pm PT
$12.5k Claiming for 4&up (non-winners of 2 lifetime) going 6f (A)
Love: 1-Crash Landing has been knocking on the door at this level
Like: 10-Hovig is a massive class drop and likes the distance, even if that’s been on grass
Scratch: 8-Indy Ride
Posted by MJR at 11:04 am
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