MythicalMoney: Louisiana Derby
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Mar 272010
If given the choice, I’d rather be sipping coffee and nibbling beignets at Cafe du Monde, than simply daydreaming about it as I handicap the Louisiana Derby.
So while my mind wanders, here’s my take on the field…
5:48 pm ET / 4:48 pm CT: G2 Louisiana Derby $750k for 3yo’s going 1-1/8 mi (Trainer/Jockey)
1 – Hotep (Frostad/Husbands): should get a way better trip than his last two starts and has history at the distance – just his second start – but he’d have to step up huge
2 – Mission Impazible (Pletcher/Maragh): bred to go long but the first try at a mile last out didn’t seem to suit – he’s Munnings until he proves me wrong
3 – Fly Down (Zito/Lezcano): this team’s hot on the Derby Trail so far and the horse has done nothing wrong so far in his career – I wanna worry about the light seasoning, but he does have a win at the distance
4 – The Program (Baffert/Nakatani): expensive, highly touted SoCal shipper who can definitely get the distance – the question is how he’ll like real dirt
5 – A Little Warm (Dutrow/Cohen): a sprinter until he shows otherwise, he does boat a 34% trainer/jock win rate and a 27% trainer sprint-to-route rate so he’s worth a second glance – but I wouldn’t linger
6 – Ron the Greek (Amoss/Graham): totally wanna see a rebound back to the impressive winner of the Lecomte because I think he’s got grit – wondering if maybe he’s not thrilled to go longer
7 – Discreetly Mine (Pletcher/Castellano): has done absolutely nothing wrong so far and has already learned how to run well overcoming trouble, but the fact Todd dropped him back to 6f before taking him long last time out is puzzling – he’s kinda bred to be a miler
8 – Island Soul (Asmussen/Albarado): the usual last-minute Derby earnings try for connections that love the limelight – he’s probably way overmatched but he seems to fit more logically than his 20-1 morning line portrays
9 – Stay Put (Margolis/Theriot): 5th barely beaten 2-3/4 last out and the run line says “little impact” … ok … he’s worth a look at the price he’ll be because he’s the sleeper of the pack
10 – Wow Wow Wow (Lukas/Jacinto): loved him pre-Gotham but not such a big fan now, unless he can figure out how to be on the lead without losing all his steam before the stretch – sorta leaning towards Good Allowance Horse sentiments
11 – Mister Mardi Gras (Pessin/Bridgomohan): can imagine that barn conversation sounding like “congrats, you broke your maiden for $39k on the grass, so next we’re putting you up for Derby contention” … ok … the fact that Chris Block (of Giant Oak fame) prepped him for his debut says this horse has skill, but I just can’t like him until we get to the Arlington grass series in August
12 – Backtrack (Scherer/Sellers): it’s asking a lot for him to beat these horses in just his 3rd start, having never gone further than 6f – but crazier things have happened
13 – Drosselmeyer (Mott/Desormeaux): I am not on his bandwagon until he wins by the length of the stretch – sorry, but I think he’s just a tad overrated right now – he’s already a winner at this distance and he’ll surely be in the Derby gate
Here’s what I’d play for $10.40
$2 WPS on 8-Island Soul ($6.00)
$.10 Super Box using 3, 6, 7, 9 ($2.40)
$1 Ex Box using 6, 7 ($2.00)
