My view of the Kentucky Oaks paddock from the roof of the grandstand just outside the jockey’s room…
Apr 302010
Apr 302010
Happy Oaks Day!
Churchill Downs race 11 / 5:45 pm ET on BravoTV
G1 $500k Kentucky Oaks for 3yo fillies going 1-1/8 mi.
1. It’s Tea Time (Arnold / Garcia) … never been shorter than a mile and she comes in off a stellar Ashland try; given the only big concern is 2 turf + 1 poly races she’s been training beautifully here
2. Jody Slew (Calhoun / Mena) … she’s done nothing wrong in her long career and all of her starts have come over tracks similar to today’s, but she seems to be a class below this field
3. Quiet Temper (Romans / Albarado) … has been worse than 2nd just once in her career and she figures to run well today too – likes training over the track and loves her some fast dirt
4. Age of Humor (Maker / Maragh) … biggest concern for this filly would be that she seems to hang enough to continually get herself beat – there are better longshots to play shere
5. Blind Luck (Hollendorfer / Bejarano) … hummuna hummuna hummuna … baby ain’t done nothing wrong in her career – never off the board, comes off the synthetics and still finds a way to win (only running her best Beyer in the process); ok, if you wanna knock her: she’s got one “bad” race that was a 1/2-length loss that should’ve been a lot more
6. Beautician (McPeek / Solis) … famously known as the last hope for my fantasy stable … can’t like that she dinged her own leg in a work earlier this week and they had to reconfigure her shoeing (that usually means something more than “she took a funky step”) – given her price, that she’s gobbled up ground in her works, and she hearts Churchill and fast dirt, I just can’t turn away completely
7. Crisp (Sadler / Rosario) … honey looked fantastic jogging pre-dawn in the slop on Monday and has done zero wrong in 5 starts – she’s Blind Luck’s equal here and at a better price
8. Tidal Pool (Lukas / Borel) … is a winner over this track and should like today’s conditions – looked as good as the boys who worked on Monday
9. Bella Diamante (Milligan / Smith) … was surprised by her earlier this week – nice looking, big strong tush on her – don’t know if she’s good enough to beat this bunch, though
10. Champagne d’Oro (Guillot / Garcia) … I got to spend like an hour with her in the shedrow, so I have to remove my OMG Isn’t She Sweet bias for a moment … don’t like the wins her maiden officially then turns around in the Fair Grounds Oaks but she’s seemingly handled it all in stride – biggest concern would be that she hasn’t won the 4 previous times Martin’s gotten on (he was on for the DQ from purse money incident)
11. Evening Jewel (Cassidy / Desormeaux) … looked insanely amazing galloping on Wednesday – can’t argue with a filly at a price with a run line like hers and she’s being overlooked by some bigger named SoCal invaders
12. Ailalea (Pletcher / Velazquez) … gets the blinkers because she gets into trouble every time she runs (usually getting hung way wide) – she fits good here, not great, so I would look elsewhere
13. Amen Hallelujah (Dutrow / Leparoux) … totally have 4 headlines planned if she wins … she attacks the track and won first time dirt two back and was second last out, so getting dirt in her face isn’t an issue – it won’t surprise me if she wins
14. Joanie’s Catch (Rose / Lopez) … she’s been facing fillies about 2 tiers before this bunch and all her 18 starts couldn’t prepare her for this group
Shake Your MoneyMaker:
$1 Ex Box … 5, 8, 13 … $6 total
$5 WPS … 1, 10 … $30 total
Apr 302010
Apr 292010
1. It’s Tea Time | 2. Jody Slew | 3. Quiet Temper | 4. Age of Humor
5. Blind Luck | 6. Beautician | 7. Crisp | 8. Tidal Pool
9. Bella Diamante | 10. Champagne d’Oro | 11. Evening Jewel
12. Ailalea | 13. Amen Hallelujah | 14. Joanie’s Catch
Having had the chance to watch most of these talented fillies train, it is my pleasure to share my videos of the Oaks contenders…
Apr 282010
As you probably know by now, Beautician is the last great grey hope for my fantasy stable. Therefore, getting 3 minutes alone with trainer Kenny McPeek post-Derby Draw was totally a goal for today. While every single member of the media was busy asking about Noble’s Promise and how he’d fare coming from the 3 hole, I bided my time – and got exactly what I came for.
“She scalloped a little in her work a few days ago and we rearranged her shoeing. She’s doing phenomenal and Alex [Solis] is just the jock to ride her because he’s patient. [on the morning line] 15-1 is ridiculous – she’s already beaten Blind Luck before and they made that filly 6/5.”
Scalloping is a seldom used technical McPeekism for “tiny gash made by winging one hoof into the other leg” – I’m assured by several folks that it’s a totally minor issue.
Given that I had Kenny alone for a moment, I did have to ask the Noble’s Promise question. The answer… “He just needs a target and the last 3 riders have used too much of him too soon. I’m glad I’m giving a leg up to Martinez because he’s going to have his 1 shot to live up to his Chilly Willie nickname.”
Tying it all together: consider that the last time Alex Solis rode a Derby starter from that far towards the grandstand, he got a smidge too patient and froze up on Brother Derek – a horse who needed to be sent but got caught in traffic instead and managed a strong fourth on sheer talent alone… will he make the same mistake on Sidney’s Candy in the Derby?
Shake Your MoneyMaker 4/24: CD
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Apr 242010
As heard on Race and Sports Radio…
Churchill $1 Pick 3 in races 8, 9, 10: $12 total starts at 4:14 pm ET
Leg 1: 1-Carnacks Choice … not thrilled by the layoff of exactly a year, but Karelian’s now a G1 winner on the same theory and the horse has been running against similar; 2-Posse Cat … may not be fond of Churchill but loves the distance and is the most consistent of this bunch
Leg 2: 4-Jungle Tale … distance may be asking a bit much given her tendency to fold deep stretch but she did nothing wrong as a juvenile and comes in with solid – though not stellar – works; 6-Molly Molly Molly … the name alone is reason
Leg 3: 6-Miner’s Reserve … was asked to do a lot off his maiden win, so now that he’s been given some time he seems logical – we know he’ll get the distance, the question will be if he likes Churchill; 4-Pleasant Prince … a win gets him in the Derby; 9-Aikenite … I promised I’d give up on him for Derby consideration, but never said anything about Derby Trial consideration – love him as a horse, think this is his kind of field, and GoGo stays aboard
Recap: 1, 2 / 4, 6 / 6, 4, 9
P.S.: FocusedFilly pick ‘o the day … Churchill 5 … 7-No Truth Told … comes out of the biggest key debut race of Churchill’s ’09 spring meet and has done everything but win since – I loved him at 50/1 and I’m going to keep loving him
