Beyers are in on yesterday’s Kentucky Derby preps …
Santa Anita Derby: Sidney’s Candy (100), Setsuko (92), Lookin at Lucky (89)
Wood Memorial: Eskendereya (109), Jackson Bend (93), Awesome Act (93)
Illinois Derby: American Lion (98), Yawanna Twist (94)
So let’s play What Did We Learn
The problem with the month of April in racing is that no horse can just run for running’s sake – everything is tied to Can He Win The Derby.
What does talent count for? In 2 of the above 3 races, I guaran-darn-tee the winner was not the best horse in the race – and it has nothing to do with my predictions going in or the wagers I had at the windows.
No offense to Sidney’s Candy – who, like last year with Chocolate Candy in the Derby, will get $2 of my money simply for the irony of a Jenny Craig-owned horse being named after dessert. ‘Candy ran a good enough race that no one could catch him: but I highly doubt he’s going to be able to pull a War Emblem at Churchill in 4 weeks. Setsuko looked phenomenal in the paddock yesterday and he had that air of I’m About To Do Something Special, which has me sure he’ll be on future tickets.
But … Lookin at Lucky was dead stopped twice: bouncing off the rail once on the turn, then completely sawed off at the top of the stretch. For him to finish at all: amazing. For him to finish in the money: crazy. The thing I like about him is the same thing that scares me, though: he hasn’t run clean in his last two starts – from running up on Noble’s Promise in the Rebel to massive traffic this time … it bodes well that he can overcome it all with sheer talent, but at what point is he completely out of the money?
Now, let’s move back east to the Wood Memorial for a moment. I said as they loaded into the gate that I wouldn’t best Eskendereya or Jackson Bend until they were gatemates in the King’s Bishop at Saratoga this summer. I think the latter is a really talented, speedy miler and the former is a special horse but not for going long.
Yes, they finished 1-2. Yes, I was wrong. And I’m ok with that … why? Because watching Julien Leparoux standing straight up and so far back in the irons that he was virtually driving a car means it wasn’t the horse that lost Awesome Act the race.
Just as Lookin At Lucky can overcome the inevitable traffic trouble that comes with the Kentucky Derby because there’s really nothing he hasn’t faced yet, I think Awesome Act will benefit from having to be stuck behind a wall of horses – there’s a difference between being a ton-o-horse fighting your jock and being bottled up with horse to spare.
When it comes to American Lion in the Illinois Derby – congrats to WinStar for having like 35 of this year’s 20 Derby horses … ok, so it’s 3 or 4 depending on Drosselmeyer in the Lexington in 3 weeks. I’ve like American Lion from the get-go this year and I love how he took to dirt and that he dug in to get the distance at the end (foundation building) – I know he’ll be at Churchill and I’ll probably like him, but at this point he’ll be a perfect 6th or 7th place finisher.
Talent may get you everywhere in racing, but it doesn’t guarantee you win the big prize.
thanks for the beyer info…interesting and spot on observations regarding awesome act. he could make some noise on May 1st.