Sorry to be personal, here, but… Sometime around 2am this morning, I got around to drying my hair and promptly broke my right pinky toe. I have no one to blame but myself – how was I to know the diffuser thingy would fall and land on the bone just so?
While grabbing an ice pack to hopefully reduce the swelling and bruising for like the 7th time this year (plus I do have open toed heels to wear to the Joan Jett concert at Hollywood Park this Friday night to worry about), I realized that this must be how Todd Pletcher feels. Ok, maybe the lumps and bumps on his pride when it comes to the Kentucky Derby aren’t caused by a hot pink blowdryer, but I’d imagine the pain is just as real.
Todd is famously 0-for-24 in the Derby. He’s come close – as close as second with Invisible Ink (2001) and third with Impeachment (2000). And he’s thrown everything but the bathroom sink at the race to try and win it: all but once in the now 10 years he’s been attempting has he sent just one horse to post (Wild Horses to 18th in 2002). And it seems he’s going to top his personal best this year and send 6 postward.
When he sent out 5, he didn’t hit the board. And, personally, I think that bunch was more talented than this:
Circular Quay, Any Given Saturday, Sam P., Scat Daddy, Cowtown Cat
v
Rule, Eskendereya, Mission Impazible, Super Saver, Discreetly Mine, Interactif
(and Aikenite, who at 23rd on the list is headed to the Derby Trial)
Looking at the list, there’s no doubt in my mind that Eskendereya is his best shot. I may not be 100% sure of how we’re supposed to pronounce it, but the horse has done zero wrong in his career and – frankly – deserves being the favorite on Battaglia’s Derby morning line. My only reservation: the horse has never had anything short of a perfect trip under perfect weather with the perfect fading foes – what happens when the horse gets headed… does he fight back or give in? I can’t wait to find out.
If Discreetly Mine were headed to the Derby Trial or the Preakness, I’d be a happy camper, but no thank you come Derby Day. Interactif would be much better suited for the Crown Royal American Turf – give the horse some grass under his hooves – he’s the Giant Oak of this year.
The other 3 – Rule, Mission Impazible, and Super Saver – I just don’t know what to do with. It’s not that I don’t like them, it’s that I have nearly no information on them. Rule wins a race where no one really comes back to impress – but does that mean he gets dinged for it? Mission Impazible ran a much better race than it looked in the Southwest and the horses there came back pretty good, plus his Louisiana Derby was pretty impressive. And Super Saver is a speedball who’s ability to get the distance is questionable (favorite stat of the year so far: 22 of 135 horses have won the Derby on the lead – 6% ain’t my kind ‘o odds).
Rule and Super Saver are both owned by WinStar Farm, who also have 4 more horses entered. Between Todd and WinStar, that’s 9 of the 20 possible entrants (ok, technically 8 because Drosselmeyer is – rightfully so – outside the top 20).
I think there’s a ton of irony in the possibility that WinStar could win it without Todd. Or that Eskendereya could be sold and he’d win it having been trained by Todd but not listed as such.
Which would be worse? My toe’s too bruised to think that thought.
UPDATE! Speaking of the hot pink blowdryer… Pletcher came out this afternoon to say that Devil May Care – the filly – is being strongly considered for the Kentucky Derby. No offense to her (she’s fantastic), but if he’s silly enough to think she’s his best shot – or really any shot – at a win in anything but the Kentucky Oaks, then I nominate Chaya, my Shiba Inu (see right).
I honestly love seeing a girl race the boys. 39 fillies have tried to win the Derby and only 3 have done so. Truly, Rachel Alexandra should have been in the Derby last year. But, good god, Devil May Care is not Rachel. She’s not Eight Belles, Excellent Meeting, or Serena’s Song – and none of them won the Derby either!
Please, Todd, I know you’re desperate, but think about the filly. Do what’s in her best interest – even if it means dashing a tiny portion of your Derby dream. She’s just not good enough to beat these boys.
