CHURCHILL DOWNS
Early $.50 Pick 4 | Races 1 – 4 (12:45 pm ET / 9:45 am PT)
1st: $17k Mdn (20-17.5) for 3&up going 1 mi.
1-Came and Gone … gets major weight break with Freddie up and, given he debuted sprinting quick last month, he could make this a total merry-go-round event – catch him if you can!
6-Oak Bar … big class dropper who might simply not be a fan of the Poly deserves to be the favorite, but Corey’s gotta keep him from getting caught wide and losing all momentum on the turn
2nd: $22k Clm (16) for 3&up going 6f
5-Grasmere Park … looking for 3rd straight and 2nd at the distance at Churchill; even though this is a bit of a step up from the 10k ranks, bank on the jock/trainer combo hitting at 26%
1-Da Da Da Dum … loves him the finishing second so play him to at least hit the board; call it a lateral or slight class drop coming off a solid effort at Indiana Downs and he stays on traditional dirt
6-Speak of Kings … holds wins at the distance over the track and Julien’s been aboard for several wins as well; comes off the turf and gets an additional half-a-furlong, which should all work fine along with having the outside post for a horse who wants to lay off the pace
3rd: $58k OC 100k/N2M for 3&up going 1 mi.
3-Mad Flatter … comes in with 3 solid works over the Poly which isn’t his best surface; broke his maiden here, is solid at the distance, drops back a bit into a class he fits better into, and is seemingly lone speed
4-Agastache … the other possible speed play comes in with several strong 2nd place finishes and is actually better when he gets to sit just off the pace (question will be if he can do it coming out of sprints lately)
1-Prom Shoes … I believe this horse is talented even though he has lost some of his prior luster – the kind of horse that bites you if you leave him off your ticket entirely
4th: $23k Mdn (50-45) for 3&up F&M going 5.5f
7-Candice B Love … DQ’d from a win last out makes her a woman against girls; she’s bred to be speedy but you have to hate that she can’t run clean
2-Include the Cat … filly comes in with steady work pattern off debut at Fair Grounds six months ago against a slightly higher class of horse; plus trainer Wally Dollase is 31% with horses off the 61+day layoff and she’ll be a price
3-Fashion Passion … Kenneally is 15% with 1st’ers and 19% when naming Julien; have to like the solid work tab foundation he’s got into her
BELMONT PARK
Late $2 Pick 3 | Races 8 – 10 (4:44 pm ET / 1:44 pm PT)
8th: $39k OC 25k/N1x for NY-breds 3&up going 1-1/4 mi. (T)
10-Cops Fever … Tampa shipper may not be a big fan of winning but pace analysis shows he’ll be right there at the end
8-Bishop of Nola … trainer Schettino’s stats are solid when bringing a horse in off a layoff and off a win last out – have to like that he liked the Belmont turf in his lone try over it and that he finally found the winner’s circle last out
9th: $53k OC 100k/C for NY-breds 3&up going 1-1/16 mi.
7-Giant Moon … it takes a lot for me to admit that I like this horse given he beat my Roman Emperor on the square back in ’08 … he loves Belmont and the distance totally suits him; trainer Schossberg has done a great job in getting him to the winner’s circle in 6 of his 12 lifetime starts, though the whole “2nd start in a year” thing does bug me
5-Ruffino … Rajiv was aboard for the big 4-race win streak last year, so he knows how to get this horse to the lead
3-Naughty New Yorker … fast becoming the new Evening Attire … this guy’s forgotten how to win but tries like crazy, comes in with bullet works and if he’s going to jump up and remember how good it feels to have his picture taken, it would be against a field like this
10th: $51k MSW for 3&up F&M going 1-1/16 mi. (T)
1-Seaside Run … half sis to two turf stakes winners had a strong showing in her debut at Gulfstream in April and can only improve; plus major jock upgrade as she gets Ramon Dominguez (who’s 20% when riding for Clement)
7-Cosset … SoCal shipper is 2-for-2 running 2nd and she seems to be the class here; biggest concern is where she’ll find herself – if she wasn’t happy stalking in her debut, nor on the lead last out…?
2-Home Rule … keeps the hottest turf rider in the country up and showed some grit in finishing 3rd beaten just 2 lengths in her debut at Keelenand; added distance will not be a problem and she should be happier on the grass than on the Poly
