Derby Top Ten
Given how many races and full fields there are, making a
Top Ten Most Likely To Make The Derby should be easy.
It ain’t.
And I reserve the right to be dead wrong.
If a horse has not run, he will not move on the list unless he is removed altogether.Here goes … my 2011 Likely For The Derby Top Ten list … as of March 7th:
| 1 | - | Uncle Mo | Pletcher | 3/10/08 | KY | Indian Charlie x Playa Maya (Arch) |
| He will bounce at some point, but even his worst may be better than everyone else | ||||||
| 2 | - | Dialed In | Zito | 2/6/08 | KY | Mineshaft x Miss Doolittle (Storm Cat) |
| Definitely eager to hit the wire and late lead change in the Holy Bull says he's still learning | ||||||
| 3 | - | Brethren | Pletcher | 4/11/08 | KY | Distorted Humor x Supercharger (A. P. Indy) |
| Want to see him rate more; won Sam F. Davis geared down after awkward start | ||||||
| 4 | - | Soldat | McLaughlin | 4/19/08 | KY | War Front x La Relais (Coronado's Quest) |
| Lived up to the hype in Fountain of Youth victory; dam's side screams he wants more distance | ||||||
| 5 | - | Mucho Macho Man | Ritvo | 6/15/08 | FL | Macho Uno x Ponche de Leona (Poncha) |
| Risen Star victory was game, but distance is the question for seriously late foal | ||||||
| 6 | - | Archarcharch | Fires | 3/18/08 | KY | Arch x Woodman's Dancer (Woodman) |
| Yet to prove he can run back-to-back good races, but the Southwest showed promise | ||||||
| 7 | - | Gourmet Dinner | Standridge | 3/1/08 | FL | Trippi x Potluck Dinner (Pentelicus) |
| Always runs his race: if he'd switched leads earlier in the Fountain of Youth, he might've been right on the wire | ||||||
| 8 | - | Santiva | Kenneally | 2/1/08 | KY | Giant's Causeway x Slide (Smarten) |
| Needed the race in the Risen Star; not sure he'll want to go 1-1/4 mi., but he does like Churchill | ||||||
| 9 | - | Jaycito | Baffert | 1/29/08 | KY | Victory Gallop x Night Edition (Ascot Knight) |
| G1 winner is training like a good thing and Baffert says it's his best chance at Derby win #4 | ||||||
| 10 | Nacho Saint | Breen | 2/24/08 | KY | Yes It's True x Flashy (Wild Again) | |
| Try'r just needs racing luck - broke through the gate then was traffic troubled throughout the Gotham | ||||||
the photo of Barbaro winning the 2006 Kentucky Derby is courtesy of Rick Samuels
Nice list, Molly. I’ve got Rogue Romance at #2 on my site. I’m in love with this colt and cant wait to see him run in the Risen Star. What do you think of Da Ruler? If he wins his race this week does he start to get some serious consideration?
I think JPs Gusto will be on this list after February…very underrated
“He will bounce at some point.” Really? This is all you have to offer?
Brethren is a slug, but he rated nicely in his N1X win at CD, don’t know why that would be a concern at this point in time. Ranking him ahead of To Honor and Serve is silly, even if the latter hasn’t made his 3YO debut. How Riveting Reason would be on anyone’s top 100 list is even crazier. Is he ever going to get a better setup than he did in his last start? He has no heart, that’s why he’s 1 for 9.
Furthermore, Rick Dutrow does not train Mucho Macho Man and Santiva is more likely to be a factor in the Iowa Derby than the Kentucky Derby.
Really Blame,
Brethren is a slug? You must be one of those Beyer Handicappers. You can’t tell Brethren is a good horse? You are really a lost puppy. To Honor and Serve won on severely speed biased tracks, and also he needs to learn slow down and allow others to take the baton early as in Uncle Mo, and others. This is why i hate lists because people like you sit on the couch and launch attacks with your all wise knowledge. The list is about making it into the starting stall on the first Saturday in May. Cho has had history of getting horses to the Derby, like National Lore, who ran third in the Derby as a maiden, also, a horse like Make The Music for me for Alexis Barba, who ran fourth last year and I believe he was eligible for nw x 2 as was Jazil or Giacomo who only a maiden win to his credit. So, tell me smart guy who is your top 5, but wait I don’t need them, I have the top 5 Beyer horses right here, same thing.
Hey Blame, about writing something under your real name, so put your big boy pants on, the ones without the elastic band on, and identify yourself. You know my name, you know MJR, let’s hear yours.
Ryan,
Da Ruler had something come up and Bob was second guessing starting him. He will be interesting to see how he comes out of the race. He was trained very short into that race. As far as Rogue Romance, I fell for him, in Kentucky and was very good at Keeneland. He finished third in the BC Juvenile. I think the jury is still out on him. I think he will handle FG well as that track is as close to synthetic as it gets. Be an interesting weekend.
Brethren has beaten absolutely no one and has been far from remarkable in doing so. Five of the horses Brethren beat on Saturday are eligible for N1X allowance races. It has nothing to do with Beyer figures.
He has a long way to go to even be Super Saver and this is not the 2010 crop.
To Honor and Serve was victorious over a completely fair track at Belmont. Was the track speed favoring when he won the Nashua? Yes. When he won the Remsen? Not at all. Check the results of the 2nd, 4th and 7th from that afternoon. All were won by horses who made significant moves from off the pace and never raced anywhere near the rail. His final time was faster than older fillies went in the Gazelle and significantly faster than 2YO fillies went in the Demoiselle. At this point, in my opinion, he’s the only horse who belongs in the same zip code as Uncle Mo.
Incidentally, Nationalore did not finish in the money in the Derby. Not the Kentucky or Santa Anita renditions at least. The fact that Myung Kwon Cho, who I believe is an excellent horseman, had success with a maiden 14 years ago doesn’t excuse the fact that, to this point, Riveting Reason’s accomplishments are non-existent. He has a long way to go.
Horses like Sweet Ducky (who defeated two of the horses on this list in his last start), Travelin Man, Machen, and Rogue Romance shouldn’t be ranked behind some of the horses on this list. But hey, I love Derby lists and the more discussion there is, the better prepared we all are. Best of luck with this list and your future wagers!
Then why do you make such a big deal….you know everything, and with your myopic stance I am sure the list will go farther. Who did Super Saver beat last year. No one, he didn’t win a race in 2010 until the Derby, so your comparison between Super Saver and Brethren is not valid. Brethren is a better horse and he has more heart than Super Saver ever had. He has already won on more tracks than his brother ever did. Focus Blamethewinner Focus, and identifiy yourself by name, not by some BS masked name
Finally, its the focused filly’s opinion if you don’t like it don’t read it….simple….
Nice list Molly Jo. And You tell him Bruno!!
Seriously,
Even if you don’t agree with someone’s opinion or list, why does Blamethewinner have to be such a dick? So many people just have such a complete lack of respect for others…this Blamethewinner prick sounds just like dubby on horse racing nation..
THOS has a very elegant efficiency of speed…i’m liking him more and more all the time. Rogue Romance also moved up my list after last week. Brethren is so classy looking and very workmanlike…I see him still progressing. Dialed In: Hard Charging Closer with a Great Jock on his Back…PICK A RACE ALREADY ZITO
MO…works pretty hard as he’s moving, could limit him…but then again he could be the Freak we’re hoping he is. The Factor, rebroke on the gallop out…could he actually learn to stretch? That would be exciting. Jaycito, He can run around Churchill twice but will he do it on the rail or will he head for the parking lot? Sway Away: Quirky motion very reminiscent of The Pamplemousse..I like quirky so I’ll add him!
Great List Molly Jo - I love reading other folks Derby lists because there is always one or two that I haven’t considered. But then again, ya just never know when a Mine That Bird or Super Saver is going to scamper on a wild track and surprise ya. That’s why I always put a wager on the long shots and use my winnings to buy jewelry! I love the Derby Trail…. I am very pleased with how Tom Amoss is handling Bind… and hope The Factors connections make the right decisions for his talent. I’m still waiting to see who my Derby horse is going to be…. but I will know it when I see him. Time to hit the road and take in some races!!
anyone who wasn’t impressed by Brethren’s last race knows nothing about the ponies.
The Factor is a sprinter, he should run in The Met Mile.
@Julie june Bind is NOT trained by Amoss. He is trained by Al Stall.